Vital mountain water supplies threatened by climate change

Earth’s naturally occurring water systems are under threat because of climate change and growing demand putting the water supply of billions at risk, new international research has found.

The study, authored by 32 scientists from around the world, assessed the planet’s 78 mountain glacier-based water systems and, for the first time, ranked them in order of importance to adjacent lowland communities, as well as their vulnerability to future environmental and socioeconomic changes.

These systems, known as mountain water towers, store and transport water via glaciers, snow packs, lakes and streams, thereby supplying invaluable water resources to 1.9 billion people globally – roughly a quarter of the world’s population.

The research, published in Nature, provides evidence that global water towers are at risk, in many cases critically, due to the threats of climate change, growing populations, mismanagement of water resources, and other geopolitical factors.

Further, the authors conclude that it is essential to develop international, mountain-specific conservation and climate change adaptation policies and strategies to safeguard both ecosystems and people downstream.

Dr Tobias Bolch of the School of Geography and Sustainable Development at the University of St Andrews contributed to the study as an expert in the changing mountain cryosphere and its impact on the downstream society.

He said: “The study quantified for the first time both the natural water supply from the mountains as well as the water demand by society, and also provided projections for the future based on climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.

“The projected loss of ice and snow and increasing water needs makes specific densely-populated basins located in arid regions, like the Indus basin in South Asia or the Amu Darya basin in Central Asia, highly vulnerable in the future.”

Globally, the most relied-upon mountain system is the Indus water tower in Asia, according to the research. The Indus water tower, which is made up of vast areas of the Himalayan mountain range and covers portions of Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan, is also one of the most vulnerable. High-ranking water tower systems on other continents are the southern Andes, the Rocky Mountains and the European Alps.

To determine the importance of these 78 water towers, researchers analysed the various factors that determine how reliant downstream communities are upon the supplies of water from these systems.

They also assessed each water tower to determine the vulnerability of the water resources, as well as the people and ecosystems that depend on them, based on predictions of future climate and socioeconomic changes.

Of the 78 global water towers identified, the following are the five most relied-upon systems by continent:

• Asia: Indus, Tarim, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Ganges-Brahmaputra
• Europe: Rhône, Po, Rhine, Black Sea North Coast, Caspian Sea Coast
• North America: Fraser, Columbia and Northwest United States, Pacific and Arctic Coast, Saskatchewan-Nelson, North America-Colorado
• South America: South Chile, South Argentina, Negro, La Puna region, North Chile

The study was led by Professor Walter Immerzeel and Dr Arthur Lutz of Utrecht University, experienced researchers of water and climate change in high mountainous Asia.

Professor Immerzeel said: “What is unique about our study is that we have assessed the water towers’ importance, not only by looking at how much water they store and provide, but also how much mountain water is needed downstream and how vulnerable these systems and communities are to a number of likely changes in the next few decades.”

Dr Lutz added: “By assessing all glacial water towers on Earth, we identified the key basin that should be on top of regional and global political agendas.”

This research was supported by National Geographic and Rolex as part of their Perpetual Planet partnership, which aims to shine a light on the challenges facing the Earth’s critical life-support systems, support science and exploration of these systems, and empower leaders around the world to develop solutions to protect the planet.

Jonathan Baillie, Executive Vice-President and Chief Scientist at the National Geographic Society, said: “Mountains are iconic and sacred places around the world, but the critical role they play in sustaining life on Earth is not well understood.

“This research will help decision-makers, on global and local levels, prioritise where action should be taken to protect mountain systems, the resources they provide, and the people who depend on them.”

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow in 2012

Greenhouse gas emissions are set for another rise in 2012. According to a Global Carbon Project, the greenhouse gas emissions will reach a record high of 35.6 billion tonnes at the end of 2012, accounting for a 2.6% increase when compared to previous year.

This is yet another clear indicator that world leaders are pretty much useless when it comes to climate change - namely plenty of false promises and very little real-time action.

The numbers for greenhouse gas emissions are 58% above 1990 levels, and world looks to be heading straight ahead to an environmental disaster of massive proportions, the one that will likely make life very difficult for our future generations.

Carbon emission continue to grow

China and India are currently two of the world's fastest growing economies. Their rapid economic growth has been sadly closely accompanied by the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, with the emissions  in China and India growing by 9.9 and 7.5% in 2011.

United States is still the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter per capita with 17.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2). China, for instance, has 6,6 tonnes of CO2 per capita while India has only 1.8 toones of CO2 per capita.

The widespread development of low carbon technologies and improved energy efficiency are still far from reality, meaning that greenhouse gas emissions will likely continue to grow further in years to come.

The climate change talks in Doha will likely have a disappointing end like this was the case with previous climate change conferences. The world leaders do not listen to scientific community because of different interests between the developed and developing countries.

Without the unity in global politics world doesn't stand the chance against climate change. Hopefully, world leaders will realize this before it's too late. Though as some say world could already be too late to do something about it.

Arctic summer ice steadily shrinking

Arctic summer ice cover is constantly shrinking in the wake of climate change and global warming. By the end of August this year, Arctic summer sea ice covered only an area below 4-million sq. km. This means that the record set on Sept. 18, 2007 with a 4.17-million sq.-km has already been broken, and we are talking about the smallest minimum ice extent that was ever recorded in Arctic.

The scientists fear that this year's extreme melting of Arctic ice is only the beginning of the trend that will lead to Arctic being free of summer ice within the next 25-30 years, much sooner than it was previously thought.

The loss of Arctic summer ice will have serious consequences for our future wellbeing. Arctic ice helps regulate the climate by reflecting the sunlight, and therefore cooling the climate. No ice would cause more moisture from the oceans to enter the atmosphere which would lead to more powerful and much more frequent storms. This increase in storm frequency and storm intensity will likely affect most of the world's populated places, leading to massive damages.

Arctic has already lost much of its thick (older) ice that would remain throughout the summer. Thirty years ago the ratio between thick, older ice and seasonal ice (ice that would melt away in the summer) was about 80 % older and 20% seasonal. Today, due to the rapidly growing global warming impact this ratio has almost reversed.

Also, there are huge quantities of organic carbon locked away as frozen plant matter in the big permafrost region of the Arctic, meaning that the further melting of Arctic ice could result in even more carbon emission being emitted in the atmosphere, leading to an even worse climate change impact.

Arctic is first in line when it comes to climate change impact. We sadly keep forgetting that climate change impact won't stop at Arctic but will spread further to an entire planet because we are talking about global phenomenon that will only increase in power and magnitude.

Higher temperatures to cause extreme rainfall in the tropics

Global warming and the resulting higher temperatures will likely account for extreme rainfall in the tropics. According to a latest MIT study every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature in the tropics will result in 10 percent heavier rainfall extremes. This rainfall increase could have major impact on flooding in many populous regions in the tropics.

The researchers are convinced that rainfall extremes in tropical regions are more sensitive to global warming compared to other regions thought they are yet to understand the reasons why.

The basic principle of this increase in precipitation is well known. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide enter the atmosphere, more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means higher temperature, and this in turn leads to increases in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. More water vapor in the atmosphere means that there will be heavier rain because of the increased humidity, which fuels more intense storms.

The MIT scientists have used satellite observations of extreme rainfall between the latitudes of 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south, an area just above and below the Equator, and were looking at the several climate models, which are able to simulate the effects of both El Niño and global warming.

They have discovered one clear pattern, namely that models that showed a strong response in rainfall to El Niño also responded strongly to global warming.

The researchers issued warnings to policymakers saying that although the rainfall will increase in the wettest regions, the drier parts of the tropics will likely become even more drier, meaning that they should not only take into account more damaging flooding, but also less reliable rains from year to year.

Forests feeling the heat of climate change

Climate change has negative impact on forests from many different angles. The increased temperatures are not only causing heat stress and drought but they are also opening the door for wide-spread insect infestation.

In many parts of the world researchers are already talking about rapidly growing forest mortality. Not all tree species are affected the same with some species of trees being more resistant than other, with other likely to be hit particularly hard, depending on factors such as age or sizes of trees.

Some researchers fear that in business as usual scenario many forest areas will cease to exist and will turn into grasslands or some other ecosystems. This could further increase climate change impact because forests are large carbon sinkers, absorbing plenty of CO2 from the atmosphere. Also, the decomposition of dead trees releases CO2 in the atmosphere, therefore increasing global warming effect and debris from dead trees could also increase a forest's fire risk and result in even more CO2 emissions.

Forests play vital role in not only absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, but also in regulating climate and water purification. They are also important for water and nutrient cycle, not to mention that they also provide homes for thousands of different animal and plant species.

In United States, this summer's severe drought has taken heavy toll on forests, and we are yet to receive official data about the total damage done to U.S. forests. One thing is sure though, there will be plenty dead trees in the final report.

Many researchers believe that one-dimensional approach may not be enough to save our forests and are calling for joint action that would not only include climate change scientists and ecologists but also, biogeochemists, hydrologists, economists, social scientists, etc.

Current forest management practices won't be enough to save many of our forests from climate change impact and this is why this issue needs to involve more scientists, from different scientific fields.